Seven Election Takeaways

Turnout

Republicans were bullish in the weeks leading up to the election, claiming that there would be an enthusiasm gap between fired-up conservatives and disillusioned liberals. Turnout has been lower than 2008, but not in the proportions Republicans expected – African-American enthusiasm seems undiminished, and a larger proportion of Latinos (who themselves made up a larger proportion of the electorate) went for Obama.

 

Racial differences

As expected, Obama performed significantly better than Romney among ethnic minorities. Nearly half of those who voted for Obama were non-white, a new record. This number will continue to rise until the Republican Party takes a less hard-right stance on immigration.

Perhaps the real winner of this election will be Marco Rubio, who will probably run in 2016 on the promise of making inroads into the Latino vote.

 

Gender and sexual politics

This election was a victory for advocates of gender equality, with Missouri and Indiana emphatically rejecting anti-choice foot-in-mouth extraordinaires Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock. On top of this a record number women were elected to the Senate, including Tammy Baldwin, who will become the first openly gay Senator in U.S. history.

A clear blow was dealt to the ‘traditional marriage’ brigade, with all four states with gay marriage on the ballot voting for equality. Maine, Maryland and Washington voted to recognize gay marriage, while Minnesota rejected a constitutional amendment to ban it.

 

Romney in Ohio

In hindsight, Romney was never likely to win Ohio – his opposition to the auto-bailout coupled with an excellent Democratic get-out-the-vote effort seriously diminished his chances – but his team insisted it was not only in play but very competitive. They almost certainly weren’t as confident as they projected.

The big takeaway: this was a vote for government intervention and for government spending. Sixty percent of the Ohio electorate approved of the bailout, and the race would have been much tighter if Obama had let the industry go bankrupt.

 

Obama coalition or Democrat coalition?

This result was extremely positive for the Democrats. Very few predicted that they would win so many states or Senate races, especially given the state of the economy – the last incumbent president to win with such a high unemployment rate was FDR in 1940. That they can make gains in such an economic climate is a good omen.

The big question for 2016 is: is this a Democratic coalition or an Obama coalition? Was voter turnout so high relative to expectations because voters like the Democrats or because they are enthused with Obama’s personality? Expect a lot to be written about this over the next four years.

 

Senate Gains

There has been only one winner in the battle for the soul of the GOP – the Democrats. The story of this election in Senate terms was the Tea Party vs. the moderates, and has been for two electoral cycles. In 2010 they failed to take the majority despite sweeping the house, and in 2012 they have been thwarted by the nomination of unelectable candidates.

The Tea Party narrative is easy to predict: Mitt Romney wasn’t conservative enough. If he had been a true conservative he would have been swept into office and these ‘unelectables’ would have ridden his coattails. So long as the GOP fails to stand up to this idea, the Senate majority will probably be out of reach.

 

Puerto Rico votes in favor of U.S. statehood

This has been relegated to a side issue, but it could be one of the most important things to come out of this election. Obama has vowed to respect the will of the Puerto Rican people, and a statehood bill should now be submitted to Congress. If successful the island will become the 51st state, influencing the balance of power in congress (probably in favor of the Democrats).

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7 thoughts on “Seven Election Takeaways

  1. How much weight do you give to the Tea Party narrative on the Senate races? Do you think moderate candidates would do better in these contests?

    • The GOP’s experience in Senate races in the last two cycles leaves little doubt – the Tea Party narrative is nonsense. Mourdock and Akin’s poll numbers dived precisely because of their comments, which, although disavowed by the party at large, are reflective of Tea Party views. Lugar would have been a lock to hold the Indiana seat, and Akin was the strong favorite to win in Missouri before the ‘legitimate rape’ fiasco. Of the list of Tea Party Senate failures – Mourdock, Akin, Angle, Buck and O’Donnell – all should at the very least have run competitive races.

      Moderate Republicans would have been favorites for all of those seats, and the political landscape today would be very different indeed had they won them.

  2. Interesting post – especially the last point, that had eluded me but that could signal a significant decline in the possibility of Republican government in the future, unless there is a major philosophy shift at the base.

  3. As a Libertarian I agree with Republicans in principle on government size and spending. I say on principle because they continue to spend as badly as the other party. However I disagree with their abuse of government powers of civil liberties and attempts to stop people from entering into whatever social contract they so choose. Most people think Democrats are socially liberal, and on a few issues they are, but both parties are authoritative and deem it necessary to pass bills like HR347 and the Patriot Act, for the “safety” of our nation. Republicans went as far as to create new government agencies not reduce government size or scope.

    • “I say on principle because they continue to spend as badly as the other party.”

      They do indeed. George Bush was a disaster for Libertarians such as yourself, hugely increasing government spending and extending federal power whilst claiming to believe in the absolute opposite. Boehner and McConnell have continued this legacy.

      Are you from the U.S.? If so, who did you vote for? If not, who would you have voted for?

      • I voted for Gary Johnson in California. Unfortunately we Libertarians are still a ways off from gaining full ballot access, which will continue to hamper nation recognition of issues that need to be talked about honestly.

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